Friday, November 6, 2009

Misdiagnosis: Get Used to it.

Yesterday state run media was running the story that the pace of unemployment was slowing. They can't help but take horrible news and put a positive spin on it. They are so 'in the bag' for this administration that there headlines are contemptuous.

New jobless claims drop to 512K, lowest since Jan.

Still, companies are reluctant to hire and economists expect the unemployment rate will tick up to 9.9 percent when October's figure is reported Friday. The jobless rate hit a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 512,000. That's better than economists' estimates of 523,000.
Isn't that like saying "Sir, the patient has been severely hemorrhaging for 10 months, we are pleased to report the amount of blood seeping from the wounds has slowed considerably!". Well yeah? Maybe the patient is almost out of blood and about to die?
But economists worry that growth will slow early next year as various government stimulus programs wind down. That uncertainty has made many employers reluctant to hire.
OK, so here the press is throwing rose petals in front of the president and the possibility of yet another stimulus package. There is most definitely reluctance and uncertainty in the markets and in the private sector, but it is not for the lack of more govt stimulus, it is precisely because of the radical agenda that this administration is pursuing. Companies are most likely at the ready to pursue growth strategies, and plans for expansion. Many economic indicators suggest that the worst is indeed over. However, it is the uncertainty about what health care legislation will mean to the bottom line, and what cap and trade will mean to the bottom line that are keeping companies from using what may be vital capitol that they have, and could be forced to hand over to the government , that is preventing the return to prosperity.

What a difference a day makes. Today the state run media was forced to confess what really bad shape the patient is actually in.

Jobless rate tops 10 pct. for first time since '83

The 10.2 percent jobless rate for October shows how weak the economy remains even though it is growing. Rising unemployment also could threaten the recovery if it saps consumers' confidence and makes them more cautious about spending as the holiday season approaches.

Economists say the unemployment rate could reach 10.5 percent next year because employers remain reluctant to hire.

"It's a stark reminder of how much work remains to be done to get people back to work," Christina Romer, head of President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers, acknowledged in an interview with The Associated Press.
No! It's not a lot of work! All the administration has to do is drop the guns and back away. Stop the threat of radical socialism. Convince companies that government intervention is not constantly looming over their heads. Convince them that cap and trade is not just another government revenue stream and that it won't hurt them competitively around the world, and that it won't trigger trade wars. These are the things that are preventing companies from bounding forward and preventing them from trying to capture the high ground.

This misdiagnosis of our economic situation is just a sliver of light, or a very small insight into what a disaster the health care reforms will be. Aside from affecting business, and economic growth it will also affect the quality of health care being provided today. Intentional misdiagnosis to make the numbers fit into the program will be as welcomed in the delivery of health care as it is in the work to repair the economy.
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